Eli Lilly stock sinks after Q3 earnings miss Wall Street expectations

Eli Lilly (LLY) shares took a hit, falling as much as 10% in premarket trading Wednesday after third-quarter earnings missed Wall Street’s revenue expectations. The pharmaceutical giant also revised its annual profit outlook downward, adjusting the high end of its revenue guidance.

Eli Lilly reported $11.4 billion in revenue for Q3, which, while marking a 20% year-over-year increase, fell short of analysts’ projections of $12.17 billion. Profit was also below expectations, landing at $970.3 billion.

The company's weight-loss medication Zepbound and diabetes treatment Mounjaro continued to perform well, keeping the GLP-1 drug portfolio at the core of Lilly’s revenue story. However, Zepbound’s revenue was slightly underwhelming, reaching nearly $1.3 billion compared to the anticipated $1.7 billion.

Eli Lilly explained that U.S. sales of both drugs were "negatively impacted by inventory decreases in the wholesaler channel." Meanwhile, Mizuho’s healthcare expert Jared Holz had expected Zepbound sales to exceed expectations, although Mounjaro sales, with estimates of $3.8 billion, might fall short due to patients’ preference for Zepbound’s higher-dosage benefits.

Lilly reported $4.4 billion in revenue from these two drugs, with Mounjaro contributing $3.1 billion.

Beyond the GLP-1 segment, Eli Lilly is advancing an Alzheimer’s drug candidate, aiming to compete with market leader Leqembi from Biogen (BIIB) and Eisai. Recent studies suggest that lower starting doses could reduce brain-swelling risks, a side effect affecting many Alzheimer’s drugs, including Lilly’s Kisunla, currently in late-stage trials.

The market potential for obesity treatments has boosted Lilly’s stock significantly, with a rise of over 50% in 2024 alone, positioning it as a potential first trillion-dollar healthcare company. To meet high demand, Lilly has worked to address supply shortages of its drugs containing tirzepatide. The company recently introduced a direct-to-consumer option, offering discounted drug vials to cash-paying patients, which may ease ongoing supply issues even as the FDA considers putting its weight-loss drugs back on the shortage list.

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